Top 5 in order -
Scott - while he may only have had the new Zero a short time, there is little doubt that he'll be quick. I'll back him as an underdog to win it on the proviso that Weymouth decides to break with it's usual statistics and some good wind arrives each day. He is still one of a very select few to have beaten Rohan for a title in recent years.
Mat - Weymouth is a v. light wind venue around June/July, averaging something like 6 knots with a maximum of 11 (EDIT -- Sorry, got my data a bit wrong there. The max wind speed for the month of July at Weymouth/Portland is 32 kts recorded in July 2004... the average is still 6.2 knots for the month of july, taken over the last 4 years of recorded data from the online anaemometer in portland harbour). At barely over 60 kgs sopping wet, if anyone flys before him in light winds they're either doing rediculously well, or they're sitting in the RIB being towed home. Suspect he'll be carrying a new MSL13 in the light, switching to a 10B or X8 sail if/when the wind gets up a bit. He's also known for being exceptionally strong tactically (mostly as a result of campaigning 470s at the highest level) so he's got to be a likely top 3 finisher IMHO.
Si Payne - yet again, new Zero which has been showing promise, as long as he doesn't sail it into holes. Huge amounts of experience, also very fit and light. Will know the venue a lot better than any Euro competitor other than Weymouth locals like Linton (if he sails), Sam, Alex or Adam. Will the advancing years be the only thing stopping him from repeating the win at Horsens? His latest blog posting seems to hint that his heart may also be prone to ruling over his head on occasion:
Quote:
And she was awesome (in every way actually) but I started off well too and we found a natural rhythme, yet as the minutes went by I began to resent the mirror we were rowing in to. Her good looks were doing me harm... This was because despite a cardiologist telling me 4 years ago and mid way through a messy divorce that I hadn't had a heart attack, that I'd got a huge heart and it was just in fact just trapped wind, and really I should find exercise easier than most... this time my heart was at ten tenths and seemingly intent on powering other organs too! I spied on her T the words Cambridge/Oxford/Rowing/1998. This caused me to row harder ... Spectactulary I hit a personal best, Fastest 2500m I've done. We left the changing rooms at the same time (planned) and mentioning her T shirt, I asked what boat she was on in 1998. She looked confused then smiled. "Spectator" she said... I'll keep you posted...
If that is anything to go by, I don't think he'd care where he comes as long as he walks away with a neat little package at the end of the day!!
Graham Vials - rumoured to have been going exceptionally fast in the early stages of the 07/08 UK season, with a few very noticable big wins in yardstick regattas. However, not much has been heard of him since... so I suspect either his lead up to this worlds has been done in Australia II style secrecy, or there just hasn't been a lot of it due to life getting in the way. Time will tell. With luck, his new boat will hold together a lot better than his first bladerider did at Garda (I'd say that's a pretty safe bet) and he'll get the results at Weymouth that he was sadly robbed of at Garda by structural problems.
Adam May - Adam will either be sailing his well tested and tuned Mistress 3v from Garda or the new Velociraptor at Weymouth, which has been out testing recently. He's also pretty light and is a local to the Weymouth area. I'd say he'd be in the top 5 fairly easily in the old 3v; if he's in the new boat he could either win it by a mile, or he could suffer prototype boat blues and wind up somewhere mid-fleet. So a conservative 5th is my pick.
Masters will be a tight fight between Amac and Si. I'm picking Si, with Amac just outside the top 5, but definitely in the top 10.
Grand Master - Colin (is there anyone else?), presuming his new boat is ready in time.
Junior and Female title - Sam "Baberider" England. Will someone please correct the lettering on her bladerider to reflect this new found nickname?
First Lowrider - ???? If the winds are light enough and someone finds an unmolested HT there is always the possibility of a lowrider winning a worlds if the winds are really light. There won't be many lowriders at Weymouth anyway, so this may be irrelivant.
THE ALL-IMPORTANT ASHES - AUS will retain (not sure who the 5th AUS sailor will be, but someone will step up... they have to! It's our nation's sailing pride at stake here!!). It will be a much closer result than at Garda.
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Scotty will go close and I think Doink is in the hunt for top five.